Alphonse Karr said "The more things change, the more they are the same".
Yes, sure, blogging is a powerful force. But it's this years favorite hobby, and the burnout is starting already. The brutal reality is that most people can't keep on being interesting day after day, week after week. No, I don't think blogging is going away, but I do think the fervor will die down and I am dead certain that you'll start to see consolidation; groups of bloggers merging together into mega-blogs. That merging is already happening (example: ReveNews), and I think you'll see a lot more of it.
Oh, there will always be lone wolf bloggers. People like me - I don't play well with others. I like things my way, and only my way: if I don't have 100% control, I don't want any part of it. But humans in general aren't like that. Most people like cooperation, synergy, team building, and let's not forget that they also like time off. Vacations, sick days, sabbaticals: all easier when working with a group.
I do agree that the traditional media is in big trouble. I haven't bought a newspaper in years and don't miss it. I do watch the 10:00 news on TV fairly often, but sometimes I just call up Google news and read what I want, when I want. Traditional media is going to disappear, and it probably won't take all that long. But that doesn't mean that CNN is going to go belly up, it just means that they'll change. Maybe their reporters become bloggers - not independent bloggers; they'd still be working for CNN, but their medium changes. That's already started, too: they have a "Citizen Journalist" project.
So things change, but they aren't going to change all that much. There will still be media giants in the "New Web", and the fact that "everybody's blogging" right now doesn't mean they still will be in five years.
Me? Oh, that's different. I've been shooting my mouth off on the web since '97; I'm sure I have a bit more to say before I'm done.
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